Who will win the Kentucky Derby Trophy on 7th May 2011? Part 1
The 137th running of ‘The Run For The Roses’ is little more than a month away and there is only one place to start this preview – and that is with a focus on the hot favourite. Introducing the brilliant, unbeaten, 2010 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, Uncle Mo.
The orange and blue silks sported by Uncle Mo are those of multi-millionaire businessman Mike Repole (below). Repole, who made his fortune in the drinks industry, chose the silks to match the colours of his favourite Baseball team, the New York Mets. In fact he loves the Mets so much (he was quoted as saying ‘I bleed blue and orange’!) that he has reportedly been trying to buy a major share in them in 2011.
As for the horse itself, he is a perfect four from four on the racetrack and in truth no horse has ever really worried him. His finest hour unquestionably came when winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile – beating the highly rated Boys At Tosconova by 4.5 lengths. It was in many ways the perfect display from an American dirt horse. Jockey John Velasquez had Uncle Mo in the perfect spot early, stalking the pacesetter before grinding his rivals into submission in the closing stages with his phenomenally powerful stride. The time was good, the horse has run over two turns at Churchill Downs and he hails from the powerful Todd Pletcher barn which won the Kentucky Derby in 2010 with Super Saver. So – what can go wrong?
In many ways, the biggest obstacle for Uncle Mo is history itself. Of the 27 horses to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, only one has managed to follow up in the Kentucky Derby (namely Street Sense, who won the Derby in 2007). Fans of Uncle Mo might point out that Street Sense also won his Breeders’ Cup race at Churchill Downs (and coincidentally in a time almost identical to that recorded by Uncle Mo back in October). It is debatable how much we should read into this sort of statistic, but it is probably fair to say that the route to Kentucky Derby glory is less predictable than for the equivalent European Classics. More contenders tend to appear in trials in the weeks leading up to the race and it often isn’t the top juveniles who fight out the finish in May.
One thing you would certainly never see in Europe for races like the 2000 Guineas is the favourite having two prep races, but that is the route Uncle Mo will take. He won the 5 runner Timely Writer Stakes at Gulfstream in March very easily and is due to contest the Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct next Saturday. If he comes through that test in good style, then expect him to be sent off a very hot favourite on the 7th (8th May in Mainland China).
Next week: An update on Uncle Mo after the Wood Memorial and a focus on one of his main rivals: The Factor
I love everything about Mo. History aside, the problem with the Derby is that it is always a 20-horse field and the draw matters here perhaps more than any race in the world. Would anyone pick any horse that drew the #20 post? Also, the competition this year – To Honor And Serve, The Factor, Dialed In, Boys… – is likely better this year than in many previous years. But, even if he stumbles in the Wood (remember Secretariat?), I like Mo if he stays sound and gets a reasonable draw. That said, here is my early prediction: the spoiler Nick Zito and Dialed In take the Belmont.