Who will win the Kentucky Derby Trophy? Part 3
Another week – and another shock in the build up to ‘The Run For The Roses’
This week’s major Derby trial, the Arkansas Derby looked all about one horse – The Factor (above). Bob Baffert’s colt had won his last three starts and was the only Kentucky Derby contender to have three straight Beyer Figures (the most widely respected American speed ratings) of more than 100 to his name.
The doubts going into the race surrounded his ability to stay the extra distance. The Arkansas Derby was the first time that The Factor had attempted more than 8.5 furlongs. We knew he would probably try to dominate the field, but could he last home? Soon after the gates had opened it was clear that this colt wasn’t going to have things his own way. J P’s Gusto grabbed the early lead and The Factor was left on the inside in third – not looking entirely comfortable in the chasing role. It soon became clear that it wasn’t going to be The Factor’s day – with the closing stages seeing local hope, Archarcharch, hold off the fast finishing Nehro.
Bob Baffert was quick to point out that The Factor apparently displaced his palate in the race, which could possibly explain his lacklustre display. However, he now looks like a potential non stayer and a horse who probably needs to dominate in his races – so his credentials for the Kentucky Derby look shaky to say the least.
And what of Archarcharhro? Archrcharch (above) had previously finished behind The Factor over a shorter trip at Oaklawn and that possibly adds fuel to the theory that The Factor simply didn’t run his race this weekend. Possibly the most interesting contender for Louisville is Nehro – whose closing effort suggested that the extra stamina demands of the Derby could see him reverse the placings with the winner.
What is evident is that the Arkansas failed to clear what is increasingly looking like a muddy Kentucky Derby picture.
In most people’s eyes the horse to now beat in the race is the rock solid Florida Derby winner, Dialed In – but there is no doubt that Uncle Mo could still hold the key to the this race.
In an interesting development, it was revealed by his trainer Todd Pletcher that Uncle Mo had suffered from a gastro-intestinal infection which had shown up in blood tests after his shock defeat in the Wood Memorial. The horse remains a possible starter for the Derby, but his participation is by no means assured. What is certain is that this Kentucky Derby looks wide open at this stage – and if there was a genuine excuse for Uncle Mo’s flop last week then he has to remain a very serious contender for glory in May.
Next week: The latest news on Uncle Mo and The factor plus a look at some of the likely outsiders for the Derby.
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