The Shanghai Race Club

The final field has been decided and saddlecloths drawn. Here is the rundown of the runners and riders for the Kentucky Derby on 7th May 2011 (6:30am, 8th May - China timezone)

01. Archarcharch, J. Court

Winner of the the Arkansas Derby, beating Nehro by a neck. Has to prove he is as good away from Oaklawn and visual impression was that Nehro might reverse the form over this longer trip.

02. Brilliant Speed, J. Rosario

Won the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, but that contest takes place on Polytrack and the form of the race looks well below what will be required here. Has a dirt pedigree though and bred to stay, so not without some hope.

03. Twice the Appeal, C. Borel

Won a Grade 3 at Sunland park last time, but overall profile suggests he isn’t up to this level.

04. Stay Thirsty, R. Dominguez

Owned by Uncle Mo’s owner, Mike Repole. Produced some decent form as a juvenile (second to Boys At Toscanova at Santa Anita) and won Gotham Stakes in March. However, was well behind Dialed In in the Florida Derby and big question mark as to whether he is tough enough for this contest.

05. Decisive Moment, K. Clark

Held in minor trials recently and although capable of useful form on his day, nothing in his record suggests he can win a Kentucky Derby

06. Comma To The Top, P. Valenzuela

Front runner who has run well in Grade 1 company (finest hour came in winning the Cashcall Futurity in December). Likely to run well for a way, but massive doubt surrounding this extended trip.

07. Pants On Fire, R. Napravnik

Looked below this class until latest start, where he beat Nehro by a neck in Lousiana Derby. Needs to take another step forward here, but looks one of the more interesting outsiders.

08. Dialed In, J. Leparoux

Deep closing Florida Derby winner, who looks sure to suited by the extra stamina test of the Kentucky Derby. Given his run style he will need luck in running and he hasn’t recorded outstanding figures to date but sure to be closing them down in the home straight.

09. Derby Kitten, J. Castellano

Won a Grade 3 on Polytrack last time to book his ticket for this race but needs to find significant improvement and prove he can be as good on the traditional dirt surface.

10. Twinspired, M. Smith

Another horse whose best form has come on Polytrack – finished second behind Brilliant Speed in the Blue Grass Stakes and looks an unlikely winner on that form

11. Master of Hounds, G. Gomez

Talented Aidan O’Brien trained turf horse who finished 3rd in an English Group 1 as a Juvenile (Racing Post Trophy). Showed he had trained on when running a fine 2nd in the UAE Derby in Dubai. Has to be a doubt as to whether he will be as good on dirt (his pedigree isn’t a typical dirt pedigree), but would be dangerous to rule him out in an open renewal.

12. Santiva, S. Bridgmohan

Best effort when second in the Risen Star Stakes, but well beaten in Blue Grass and looks likely to be an ‘also-ran’ here too.

13. Mucho Macho Man, R. Maragh

Finished behind Pants On Fire in the LA Derby, but possible he had excuses there (tore a shoe off in the race). Recorded good figures as a juvenile and has the scope to improve again, so looks a realistic contender for the win.

14. Shackleford, J. Castanon

Florida Derby 2nd came as a surprise (previous form  had not suggested he was up to G1 class), but lot to like about that effort and not impossible he could hit the frame here – especially if the track conditions favour prominent runners

15. Midnight Interlude, V. Espinoza

Unraced as a juvenile, but progressing well and probably had more in hand than the result suggested when winning the Santa Anita Derby last time (beating Comma To The Top). Needs to improve and there is a stamina doubt on pedigree, but dangerous to rule out this Bob Baffert trained runner.

16. Animal Kingdom, R. Albarado

Progressing well and convincing winner of Spiral Stakes last time. All his efforts have been Polytrack and Turf, though, and pedigree raises doubts about the dirt surface.

17. Soldat, A. Garcia

Came into Florida Derby with a very solid profile (has the second biggest Beyer figure in the field behind Uncle Mo), but was very disappointing in that contest. Connections suggested he didn’t enjoy getting behind that day. Needs to bounce back, but has the ability to make the frame if he does.

18. Uncle Mo, J. Velazquez

Looked a potential superstar last year and was extremely impressive winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Looked well enough on his comeback run at Gulfstream Park, but was extremely disappointing when turned over at very short odds in the Wood Memorial. Preparation for this contest has been interrupted and even at this late stage, his participation is not guaranteed. A return to his best form would give him a huge chance – but the vibes don’t seem strong for him.

19. Nehro, C. Nakatani

Very solid recent form, finishing second in both the LA Derby and Arkansas Derby. Was closing well in both contests and looks the type to be suited by extra stamina demands of the Kentucky Derby. Needs to improve, but like Dialed In looks a rock solid contender.

20. Watch Me Go, R. Bejarano

Won a minor Graded race at Tampa Bay, but was heavily beaten in Illinois Derby and looks a real longshot to  land this.

CONCLUSION

This looks as open a Kentucky Derby as has been seen for years. If one thought Mike Repole’s Uncle Mo could return to form, then he would be a confident selection, but the recent vibes have not been strong and he would now rate as something of a surprise winner. Nehro looks to be improving at the right time and can make the frame, but he could find Florida Derby winner, DIALED IN (below) too strong. The Nick Zito trained colt hasn’t recorded any huge Beyer figures yet, but the big field and strong pace can see him hit a new high at the right moment. Of the many outsiders with a chance, Pants On Fire and Master Of Hounds appeal as the most likely to cause an upset.