Who will win the Melbourne Cup? Part 3
RACECLUB MAGAZINE
page published 29th October 2011
It has been a dramatic week in the run up to the Melbourne Cup. Tanby defeated At First Sight in the Bendigo Cup, Niwot galloped into Cup contention when winning the Lexus Stakes and Glass Harmonium landed the Mackinnon Stakes on Saturday. Plus there were late defections from the Cup from Midas Touch, Sahara Sun and a few others; not enough, however, for 2008 runner-up Bauer, who agonizingly missed out by one spot.
At the end of it all, we have been left with a top class field of 24 stayers for the 2011 Melbourne Cup – the ‘Race that stops a Nation’. Here they are in racecard order…
1. Americain – owned by Kevin Bamford & Gerry Ryan, last year’s Cup hero returns to defend his crown in top form, having easily accounted for Tullamore in the recent Drake International Cup. Sure to go well, but must carry big weight here, so vulnerable to improvers.
2. Jukebox Jury – also part-owned by Bamford & Ryan, Jukebox Jury is a top class English raider. Was last seen dead-heating in the Group 1 Irish St Leger. Has the class and should have no problems with the trip, so looks a leading contender.
3. Dunaden – owned by Sheikh Fahad’s Pearl Bloodstock, Dunaden has taken a similar route to Americain last year, being campaigned in the leading French staying races in the summer, before shooting into Cup contention with a win in the Geelong Cup. Classy and a definite stayer, Dunaden looks to hold a major chance.
4. Drunken Sailor – owned by Tony Bloom. Decent stayer in the UK for Luca Cumani, but performances last year in Australia and when seventh in this season’s Caulfield Cup suggests he needs to lift his game to compete here.
5. Glass Harmonium – ex-European now trained by Michael Moroney. Won the Mackinnon Stakes on Saturday over 2000 metres, which proves he possesses the ability, but big questions remain over his ability to stay the 3200m trip (never won over further than 2100m)
6. Manighar – another Cumani contender, Manighar was 7th in last year’s Cup and ran a good trial when 4th in the Caulfield Cup. Needs to improve again, but not without a chance of making the frame.
7. Unusual Suspect – a contender from the USA, Unusual Suspect has won a Grade 1 in the States. However, staying races over there are usually weak compared to European equivalents and he would need to improve on his 6th in the Caulfield Cup if he is to play a hand here.
8. Fox Hunt – English trained contender owned by Shiekh Hamdan Bin Mohammed Al Maktoum. Finished 6th behind Moyenne Corniche and Modun in the Ebor and unraced in Australia. Would be a surprise if he was good enough.
9. Lucas Cranach – Ex-German trained horse who is now with Anthony Freedman, Lucas Cranach finished 5th in a Group 1 (behind Arc winner, Danedream) on his last start in Europe. Ran well despite a setback near racetime when 5th in Caulfield Cup. Can’t be ruled out.
10. Mourayan – Ex-Irish, but now trained in Australia by Robert Hickmott. Mourayan hasn’t really looked up to this level on most of his starts, but a staying on 2nd behind Glass Harmonium in the Mackinnon Stakes offered hope that he could be competitive.
11. Precedence – trained by the legendary Bart Cummings, Precedence was 9th in last year’s Cup when one of the outsiders of the field. His recent 10th place in the Caulfield Cup suggests a similar showing could be on the cards.
12. Red Cadeaux – English raider trained by Ed Dunlop, Red Cadeaux was last seen finishing a length behind Jukebox Jury in the Irish St Leger. Unraced in Australia, but should have no problems with the trip and has a touch of class, so could run well.
13. Hawk Island – Second to The Verminator in a Group 1 at Randwick, but never dangerous when only 13th in Caulfield Cup. Looks up against it.
14. Illo – ex German trained horse now with Bart Cummings, Illo ran an encouraging first race for his new trainer when 3rd behind Americain in the Drake International Cup. Not proven over the trip, but an interesting contender nonetheless.
15. Lost In The Moment – represents Sheikh Mohammed’s Godolphin, Lost In The Moment is a proven stayer, who was 7th behind Moyenne Corniche in the Ebor. Untried in Australia and will need to improve on recent efforts to take a hand.
16. Modun – also representing Godolphin, Modun looks Sheikh Mohammed’s best chance of lifting the Cup. Finished 4th in the Ebor, but is still relatively inexperienced and there could be more improvement to come.
17. At First Sight – an ex-Aidan O’Brien horse who is now trained in Australia by Robert Hickmott. Finished 2nd in last year’s Epsom Derby and has transferred that ability to Australia where he has been building up in trip towards a tilt at the Cup – his recent second place in the Bendigo Cup suggests he might not be far away.
18. Moyenne Corniche – trained in England by Brian Ellison, Moyenne Corniche landed a big payday when winning the Ebor handicap at York. Ran an eye-catching trial for this when staying on into third place in the Herbert Power Stakes and looks capable of running a big race.
19. Saptapadi – also trained by Ellison, Saptapadi is a talented but frustrating performer. Finished 5th in the Ebor before putting in two moderate shows in the Herbert Power and Caulfield Cup. Needs to up his game considerably, but not impossible he could shock.
20. Shamrocker – trained by Danny O’Brien, Shamrocker is a horse of ability, having landed the Grade 1 Australian Derby in April. Unproven at staying trips, however and needs to improve significantly on recent efforts.
21. The Verminator – trained by Chris Waller. Enjoyed finest hour when winning the Grade 1 Metropolitain Handicap earlier this year, but this will be much tougher and finished well beaten in the Mackinnon Stakes on Saturday. Big outsider.
22. Tullamore – trained by Gai Waterhouse, Tullamore is a five year old who has been building nicely towards this target, finishing an encouraging 3rd in the Caulfield Cup before chasing home Americain in the Drake International Cup. Enjoys a big weight turnaround with Americain here and looks a contender.
23. Niwot – trained by Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes, Niwot shot into contention for this race with an impressive 3 length win in the Lexus. Only has 3 days to recover from that, but place chance at least if he can hold his form
24. Older Than Time – trained by Gai Waterhouse, Older Than Time hasn’t been in the best of form in minor Graded races and would need huge improvement to figure here.
Verdict: As you would expect for such a valuable handicap, this looks hugely competitive. Last year’s winner, Americain sets the standard and looks sure to put in a bold bid to retain his crown. He is likely to find carrying top weight just too much, though, and the improving DUNADEN can land the prize for Sheikh Fahad and Pearl Bloodstock. There are several contenders for the places, but Moyenne Corniche, Red Cadeaux and Tullamore are all fancied to run well.
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