Who will win the Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe on 2nd October 2011 ? Part 1

September 6, 2011

The Prix De L’Arc de Triomphe is the jewel in the European racing calendar. Quite simply, it is the race that every major owner and trainer in Europe wants to win.

Look at any Arc field over the last ten years and will be packed with the familiar names and colours of the continent’s racing superpowers.  Coolmore, Godolphin, The Aga Khan, Prince Khalid Abdullah, Wertheimer, Wildenstein and Niarchos. Every year, every single one of these major owners will hope that it will be their famous silks that will be victorious at Longchamp on the first Sunday in October.

So – who are the major players in 2011? The place to start, as is so often the case with the top European races, is with the Coolmore challenge.

The week started with the sad news that this year’s Epsom Derby winner, Pour Moi, has had to be retired after suffering an injury on the gallops. The Andre Fabre trained colt is owned by the familiar Coolmore names – John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith and had looked to represent their best chance of winning the Arc before this injury forced his retirement.

However, there could be a twist in this tale as Coolmore also own another major force in the middle-distance division, the ex-Australian trained So You Think. This son of High Chaparral was trained by Bart Cummings prior to this year and was a dual winner of the Cox Plate – a Group 1 contest which, while it lacks the notoreity of the Melbourne Cup,  is considered by many to be the most prestigious race to be run in Australia.

So You Think has adapted to European racing very well so far. After crushing some inferior rivals in two Group races at the Curragh, he suffered a narrow defeat at Royal Ascot at the hands of Godolphin’s Rewilding. O’Brien and Coolmore insisted there were excuses for that defeat and their belief in the horse was vindicated as he ran out an impressive winner of the Coral-Eclipse Stakes (pictured above) at Sandown on his next start. So You Think proved that day that he definitely possesses the ability to win an Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe as he got the better of last year’s Longchamp hero, the Sir Michael Stoute trained Workforce, in a thrilling stretch duel.

After that race (and doubtless with the fact that Coolmore also owned Pour Moi in mind),  the Coolmore team indicated that So You Think would return to Australia in a bid to complete a hat-trick of wins in the Cox Plate after competing in this Saturday’s Irish Champion Stakes.

But, with Pour Moi now sidelined, things have changed and Duncan Ramage, racing manager for Dato Tan Chin Nam (who also owns a stake in So You Think) today commented.

“The Arc is still very much a consideration. I believe after Saturday’s race, everyone will sit down and think about what the plan is,”

“The Cox Plate is there and it’s still an available option but if he were to run there, that would be his only race after Saturday and logic might dictate that it’s better to choose the plan with more possible options.

“The decision will rest with Aidan O’Brien and the team over there.”

The Coolmore team (From left above – Magnier and Tabor with Aidan O’Brien and jockey Ryan Moore) – all hugely successful businessmen, have built their reputations and their fortunes around making sound decisions and exploiting every opportunity that presents itself to them. Given that the Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe is probably the biggest Horse Race in the world and So You Think would have an excellent chance of winning,  I now fully expect to see the horse line up in France in October.

We will doubtless learn more after Saturday’s Irish Champion stakes, where So You Think is expected to triumph in what looks a weak renewal of the race.

Next week: Sarafina and the Aga Khan’s challenge for Arc glory. Plus, the latest news on So You Think after the Irish Champion Stakes.

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